Dr. Maria Riveiro (WP leader),
Assoc. Prof. Göran Falkman (WP co-leader),
Dr. Joeri van Laere, Assoc. Prof. Amos Ng
Research Question
How does the representation of uncertainty influence decision-making and analysis processes in multidimensional complex environments?
This general research question is divided in the following sub-questions:
- Study analytical and decision-making processes. Establishment of reasoning tasks to support.
- Presentation of uncertainty
- Presentation of uncertainty propagation
- Presentation of models
- Presentation of the effect of changing input parameters on models and outcomes
- Presentation of outcomes
- Presentation of explanations
- Presentation of level of risk and threat
- How to involve the user in the underlying computational uncertainty management processes. Exploit user’s expertise.
- Presentation of reliability of a solution
- Presentation of consequences of a solution
Relevance to UMIF
This work package corresponds to the research area number 2 within UMIF, which is central in this research project. The research presented in this work package is intended to reflect more theoretical aspects and generalizations extracted from practical experiments carried out in collaboration with participant companies.
Collaboration with Industry
This work package is connected to all the company related work packages (WP4-7), since there are visualization and interaction research questions in all of them. Therefore, practical results from those packages (WP4-7) will be used to develop general guidelines, while this work package contributes to WP4-7 with theoretical studies, specifications of research questions and interpretation of results from experiments.
Collaboration with Academia
The collaboration with the other work packages is described above. There is currently no collaboration with other academic partners.
Approach
This WP has the following objectives:
O1. Establish relevant criteria to carry out a systematic literature review on visualization of uncertainty and decision-making.
O2. Carry out a literature study based on the identified criteria presented in O1 and write a comprehensive summary based on such review.
O3. Identify relevant research questions to carry out practical experiments related to the representation of uncertainty, influence of parameters, representation of models, representation of system outcomes and explanations, and involvement of experts in the uncertainty management process.
O4. Discuss and generalize results obtained from practical experiments (based on questions presented in O3) taking into account relevant literature.
O5. Contextualize the results obtained from practical experiments and develop general design guidelines.
WP Results & Status
The results of this project will be given in the form of grounded theory regarding the visualization of uncertainty, design proposals, interpretation of results from practical experiments and final guidelines (see figure 1). Part of the work will be carried out in close collaboration with Saab, and Volvo using existing frameworks or prototypes (for example, Volvo car simulator, FACTS tool from SimOpt scenario, etc.). Therefore, add-ons to current prototypes or demonstrations are deliverables of this project. Moreover, it is estimated that this work package will produce two journal articles and two conference papers
Related Work
Although the need for visualizing uncertainty is widely accepted in the information fusion research community (e.g., Bisantz et al., 1999) and many techniques and methods have been proposed in disparate areas (cf. Pang, Wittenbrink and Lodha, 1997; Griethe and Shumann, 2006), guidelines and grounded theory regarding which visualization and interaction techniques best support different reasoning tasks under uncertainty are scarce.