Forecasts that prevent resource waste and create sustainable operations. This is research from the University of Skövde presented on the prestigious annual 100 List from the Royal Swedish Academy of Engineering Sciences (IVA).
Nikolaos Kourentzes, Professor of Informatics at the University of Skövde, is behind the research selected for IVA’s 100 List 2024.
November 12, IVA announced this year’s 100 List. The selected research projects from Swedish universities are all assessed to have high potential to generate impact through commercialisation, business and methodological development, or social impact.
This year’s theme was innovation through interdisciplinarity. IVA specifically sought researchers working across disciplines to address pressing societal issues and strengthen industry competitiveness. One of the selected projects comes from the University of Skövde and focuses on forecasting.
The Forecasting Model "One-Number Forecast"
"We live in a world where decisions need to be made quickly and efficiently, yet they are often based on varied and sometimes conflicting forecasts. This can lead to wasted resources and poor decisions. Our research aims to solve this by creating a unified forecasting model that we call the one-number forecast," says Nikolaos Kourentzes, Professor of Informatics at the University of Skövde and one of the researchers whose work has been selected for IVA’s 100 List.
The research addresses the need for coordinated, comprehensive forecasts in complex environments where unsynchronised forecasts can lead to inefficiencies, waste, and missed opportunities.
"Decisions are often based on isolated forecasts with limited information, resulting in uncoordinated actions and wasted resources. We are developing mathematical models that bring together different forecasts and tailor them to meet diverse planning needs."
Utilisation and Impact – A Key Driver
This work creates a "one-number forecast", a unified forecast that guides all organisational actions toward common goals and improves both precision and sustainability in decision-making. Prototypes of forecasting models are already being tested, and promising results are being obtained in hospital pharmacies and central banks.
Nikolaos Kourentzes is pleased that the research has been recognised by IVA and shares that generating impact through research is one of his most important motivations.
"IVA in recognizing innovative and impactful research helps keep Sweden forward-looking and competitive. As a newcomer to the country, I appreciate the opportunity to be included on this list. This reflects IVA’s and the community’s welcoming and inclusive values, where research is a tool for societal progress and collective improvement."
